13 November 2003

Speaker: John Peterson, Jean Monnet Professor, University of Glasgow
 

On 13 November 2003, Professor John Peterson addressed a CEPS membership meeting on trends in transatlantic relations after the war in Iraq. He prefaced his presentation by identifying three separate levels for analysis: political elites, policy elites and lastly public opinion.

Drawing on the work of historian Geir Lundestad, Prof. Peterson saw three characteristics at the level of political elites. Firstly, US support has, since the end of Second World War, been a crucial factor in advancing European integration. Secondly he stated that different US administrations have often naively wanted and sometimes even had believed that Europe was more integrated than it actually was in reality. Finally, even though several severe crises had come and gone, he observed that US support for European integration has been generally consistent over time.
The discussion then turned to internal divisions within both Europe and the US. Donald Rumsfeld’s infamous comments about Old and New Europe might have been forgotten in the US but it continues to rankle many Europeans. On the other side of the Atlantic, the Bush administration is equally divided in its view of the transatlantic relationship. According to Prof. Peterson the US-EU Summit this June in Washington led to a higher level of exchange and cooperation between parliamentarians across the Atlantic. In this context, it was stressed how important a reconciliation between the US and Europe is if there is to be a successful reconstruction of Iraq. On an economical level it was predicted that the US would turn its focus away from Europe unless the European economy moved into a higher gear.
Contrary to the views found at the political elite level, Prof. Peterson argued that there was a greater appreciation within the policy elite level that a transatlantic reconciliation was necessary. The role of NATO peacekeeping forces in Afghanistan could be seen in this light. Among the defence policy elites in Washington, many still see the transatlantic alliance as valuable but expect Europe to increase its military capabilities. Prof. Peterson argued that this could only happen in an EU framework and not within NATO. He also stated that transatlantic negotiations on a wide range of smaller policy areas are taking place in a rather friendly atmosphere that was not tainted by the current overall tensions.
When it came to the level of public opinion, Prof. Peterson saw President Bush as being rather successful in convincing the American people of the rightfulness of his foreign policy, especially the war in Iraq. He noted, however, that Bush now faced a much more divided and critical electorate than he did after September 11th. Generally speaking, a gap seems to persist in the public opinions of Europeans and Americans: 30% of Americans are more willing to use force than are Europeans. But as Prof. Peterson also stressed, it is George Bush rather than the US itself that Europeans are skeptical towards. And even though Europeans are clearly more "dovish" than their American counterparts, the transatlantic relationship is still underpinned by common opinions and culture, which is based on a shared threat perception and an overall "warm feeling" towards each other.
In his concluding remarks, he argued that a dramatic change might have occurred in US foreign policy due to the increasing political power of the more conservative South, and he challenged the view of scholars like Charles Kupchan who expect the US power to decline and predict a stronger and more united EU to rise instead. According to Prof. Peterson, in order for the EU to become stronger and for the EU-US relationship to be renewed, it is necessary for the big member states to take the lead.