Date: 18 March 2003

Speakers:
Michael Emerson, Senior Research Fellow, CEPS
Nathalie Tocci, Research Fellow, CEPS
Chairman: Christian Leffler, Director - Dir F, DG RELEX, European Commission

After noting the importance the European Commission attaches to the CEPS report on the Wider Middle East, Leffler introduced the two authors of the paper.

Nathalie Tocci took the occasion to speak about the first part of the document, explaining in particular the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and then moving to the setting and principle for an effective Roadmap leading to the solution of the critical situation. In presenting the Israeli-Palestinian situation, she stressed that a solution should be found for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since its continued escalation is a humanitarian tragedy, and it also pollutes the political environment of the whole region. The parties are locked into a pathological condition, one of a mad logic of escalation. Both the many destructive actions by the government of Israel in the Palestinian territories and the politically inspired crimes against Israeli civilians by extremist Palestinian groups may constitute crimes against humanity under generally accepted tenets of international law. For neither party is it legitimate under international law to invoke the crimes of the other as an excuse or justification.

The intractability of the conflict is reflected in the extraordinary range of outcomes advocated by different parties or authors.

- One-state solutions

• 1. Cantonisation: The West Bank is currently divided into small localities by the Israeli military occupation in the West Bank, with the possible occupation of the Gaza Strip also being discussed in the Israeli government. The ongoing construction or expansion of Israeli settlements and construction of strategic roads, fences and checkpoints serve as the infrastructure of cantonisation. The Palestinian-controlled localities lack contiguous borders or control of external borders. The people lack freedom of movement between localities, or indeed within them when under curfew.
• 2. Transfer/expulsion of the Palestinians. The unspeakable scenario of "transfer" is referred to in Israel. It means expelling the entire Palestinian population out of the area west of the Jordan River, leaving an entirely Jewish Greater Israel. This proposal has an alarming degree of support from within the Israeli public, but is considered implausible on the grounds that the US would not permit it.
• 3. Single democratic state. This old idea is now returning as a logical scenario to follow the cantonisation currently under way.

- Two-state solutions

• 4. Separation, fence and withdrawal. This has considerable support in Israeli public opinion. The Gaza Strip is already completely fenced in, while a new fence is being built to the east of the north-western edge of the West Bank. This idea is also flawed, however.
• 5. Bilaterally negotiated solution. A return to the point at which the Taba negotiations ended would seem acceptable to the Palestinians, as would be some version of the Saudi plan for a two-state solution based on the 1967 green line.
• 6. Multilaterally pushed solution. The Quartet seeks to push for a comprehensive solution within a three-year time horizon. Its draft Roadmap is unclear, however, in terms of the destination (e.g. where to draw the two states" frontiers).

- Confederal, multi-state solution

This would assume that a breakthrough had been achieved for a two-state solution, and on this basis, there would be worked out a cooperative regime shared by Israel and its immediate neighbours, at least with Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon initially, possibly to be joined by Iraq.

The setting up of the Roadmap towards normalisation would require respect for a range of fundamental principles, such as: a settlements freeze in phase 1; respect of IHL; retreat of Israeli occupation; Palestinian authority not to be considered a state actor; back-loaded on final status; monitoring (in first stage) and enforcement of the achieved objectives.

In continuing the programme, Emerson addressed his remarks to the second part of the document, discussing issues relating to Iraq, Iran and the wider Middle Eastern area. The book contains a special chapter dealing with Iraq and explaining the theory of just war. He discussed the current situation in the context of the six different criteria by which a "just war" is evaluated: just cause; legitimate authority; right intentions; likelihood of success; last resort and proportionality. In turning to discuss the Iranian situation, it was clear that US and EU policies continue to see Iran as the proverbial glass being "half empty or half full". The EU is beginning negotiations to establish permanent contractual relations in economic and political domains. The EU expects that that these deepening relations, including increased economic exchanges, will contribute to the processes of economic and political reform in Iran.

It expects there to be parallel progress on the economic and political tracks, and that these are indissociable and mutually reinforcing elements of the overall approach. A human rights dialogue is also part of the process, and December 2002 saw a first session in Tehran of EU and Iran officials and academics and non-government organisations to discuss questions of torture. On the other (opposite) hand, the US maintains sanctions against the regime, which was branded by President Bush in his January 2002 State of the Union address to be with Iraq and North Korea part of an "axis of evil". The US first embargoed sales of weapons and advanced technology to Iran following its 1979 revolution. Wider sanctions embracing all financial investment and imports from Iran were established in the early 1990s and largely remain in force. These divergent policies surely undercut each other.

On speaking about a Wider Middle Eastern community, it was said that the Arab world has remained a tantalising case of potential but unrealised integration. It has many of the prerequisites for becoming one of the world"s major regional projects, with commonality of language, religion and history as well as geographical contiguity. The member states of the Arab League have been trying various possible formats for regional integration, which usually find analogues in the European experience. To the extent that there is also a trend towards civil society and pluralist political institutions, an interest-based integrative process may gather momentum, drawing also on the European model of multi-layered governance systems that share and dilute but not destroy state sovereignty.

Mr. Emerson also gave a brief assessment of the Barcelona process, whose objective was to develop a strategic vision for the future of the region, as well as to complete the peace negotiations. At the Barcelona conference the parties adopted an agreement consisting of a Declaration and a Work Programme launching a triple partnership:

• a political and security partnership aimed at establishing a common area of peace and stability;
• an economic and financial partnership aimed at creating an area of shared prosperity mainly through free trade; and
• (and innovatively) a social and cultural partnership dedicated to human resources development, better understanding between cultures and exchanges between civil societies.

Last but not least, in solving conflicts in the Middle East area, inter-cultural and inter-religious dialogue initiatives should be further encouraged and promoted as a means to combat the ignorance of the "other", which is often at the basis of the perpetuation of hostile attitudes and stereotypes. The extension of such inter-religious dialogue into the Holy Land itself is greatly to be welcomed, as eloquently illustrated by the "Alexandria Declaration" of the Religious Leaders of the Holy Land one year ago.