Long-Term Care Use and Supply in Europe: Projection Models and Results for Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland

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19 April 2012
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EDITORS: Joanna Geerts is researcher and Peter Willemé is health economist in the Social Security Research Group at the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB), Esther Mot is senior researcher in the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). Chapters are written by Joanna Geerts, Peter Willemé, Linda Pickard, Derek King, Adelina Comas-Herrera, Jérôme Wittwer, Andreas Golz, Ester Mot, Erika Schultz, Agnieszka Sowa and Raquel Vegas.

This report presents results of projections of use and supply of long-term care for older persons in four countries representative of different long-term care systems: Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland. Using a standardised methodology, the projections show that between 2010 and 2060, the numbers of users of residential care, formal home care and informal care are projected to increase in all countries, but at different rates. The results also indicate that if current patterns of care use and supply prevail, supply of informal and formal care is likely to fall behind demand. Measures to increase LTC capacity will be needed in all countries; the key policy implications of these findings are discussed in Policy Brief No. 12 in this series.